Ahead of the Rugby Championship decider in Sydney, neither team has looked overly convincing in their opening two matches with the All Blacks struggling with their discipline and the Wallabies’ tendency to fade out during games. On paper and on their 2015 form, both look relatively even. However the Wallabies have it all to do if they’re going to go half way to securing back the Bledisloe Cup for the first time since 2002.
The All Blacks are, unequivocally, the best rugby side in the world and they’ve had the wood over the Wallabies for the past 13 years. However, if the media hype is anything to go on, the Wallabies quite fancy their chances at toppling the only team to have held the Rugby Championship trophy in its current form.
Both coaches have showed their willingness to tinker with their respective sides with Cheika experimenting a number of different combinations as well as Hansen throwing players like Nehe Milner-Scudder in the cauldron that is test rugby. But despite going into the game with a shaky kicker in Bernard Foley, a decision that might come back to haunt Cheika, particularly against a team who has been guilty of poor discipline, the Wallabies quite simply have nothing to lose.
Teams throughout the ages have devised plans to disarm the All Blacks but few have been successful. However, in being able to analyse All Blacks’ rugby since Johnny was a boy, there are some things that I’ve picked up and some things that, if the Wallabies implement, will take them some way to winning Bledisloe 1.
1. Storm the ruck on defence and do it consistently for 80 minutes
One of the features of All Blacks play is that they tend to be light on the men that they commit to the ruck. Teams normally do recognise this and once they take out the first man, usually one of the locks or Kieran Read, they can pressure Aaron Smith in turn making sure the backline gets back foot ball. The one flaw in this defence strategy is that it’s energy sapping so teams can only usually manage this in small intervals. With Pocock and Hooper starting, they do have the fire power to affect this however they’ll need to be strongly supported by Horwill, Mumm and Fardy which isn’t guaranteed with neither Horwill’s or Mumm’s strong points being physicality.
2. Get Carter
Every team tries this and most teams fail and it is essentially part of every opposing team’s game plan. But implementing the first step will make this second step much easier. Getting through the ruck means putting pressure on Aaron Smith which means slow or inaccurate ball to Carter. When Carter gets front foot ball, he makes time stand still but on the back foot, not so much…
3. Maul very well and at every opportunity
Whether you like it or not, mauling is effective and few teams, including the All Blacks, have found efficient and legal ways of dealing with it. The Brumbies and the Waratahs show that they can maul and the All Blacks showed in their match against Argentina that they can be susceptible to it. In terms of a play off a set piece, it also creates doubt as to whether the Wallabies are going to maul or go wide.
4. Use Folau in the 12 channel
He is undoubtedly Australia’s best player so use him at every opportunity. Defences are alert to Folau as a threat but if he’s used often in the 12 channel, he can open space out wide or take some heat off Tevita Kuridrani in centre.
5. No point using the rush defence outside 12 but centres drift and wingers stay wide
Yes the rush defence can be effective but if the forward pack doesn’t get parity, a team is essentially rushing a back line that is already on the front foot. Teams like South Africa and Argentina have tried it but it is also energy sapping so gaps appear elsewhere. New Zealand teams have proved effective on the flanks so with the centres drifting, the wingers staying on their wing, with this tactic, they’ll have to resort to going up the middle.