OPINION – Despite defending their 6 Nations crown in 2015 as well as beating the Wallabies AND the Springboks in the 2014 Autumn Internationals which is no mean feat, their poor form away from home detracts from Ireland being awarded the tag of genuine contenders for the Rugby World Cup.
When analysing the World Cup and ironing out a form guide that can be marginally relied on, a team’s consistency and their history against the other teams that they’ll come up against during the pool and the knockout stages has to be considered. But the aspect of most interest to the pundit is how they sit when compared with not just the great teams but the teams that they have trouble consistently beating.
If you look at their records against the only other four teams who have any realistic chance of lifting the William Webb Ellis Trophy at Twickenham in October, Ireland don’t have a good record.
At home
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 33.33% |
| New Zealand | 15 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0% |
| England | 66 | 30 | 4 | 32 | 45.45% |
| Australia | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 33.33% |
| % | 114 | 35.96% | 6.14% | 57.90 |
They have an even poorer one when it comes to playing the four top teams away from home so it won’t be surprising should they find their World Cup campaign fraught with danger.
Away
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| New Zealand | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0% |
| England | 63 | 17 | 4 | 42 | 26.98% |
| Australia | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 23.07% |
| % | 95 | 21.05% | 4.21% | 74.73% |
One only has to observe their 2011 World Cup campaign where they upset Australia in the pool stages before being beaten by Wales in the quarter final stages as well as losing to Wales in Cardiff in this year’s 6 Nations tournament. In 2011, their form was very good and while they produced their best rugby at the World Cup to finish atop their pool above Australia, they couldn’t produce it when it counted. The same can be said for their diabolical loss in Cardiff this year which, fortunately for Schmidt, didn’t cost them the championship.
Many people will point to a new steeliness instilled in Joe Schmidt’s Ireland however unlike the 6 Nations, if Ireland fail to fire in any of their matches, it will lead to a Millennium Stadium date likely to be against a hungry All Blacks team desperate to defend their title or straight elimination.
There’s no doubt that Ireland have the talent to go deep into the World Cup on the back of a home record which, in the last 18 months, is very good. But if they’re going to win the World Cup then they’re going to have to at least beat two of the four top teams mentioned providing they top their pool (if they don’t then they are looking at having to beat three of the top five ranked teams in the world).
Considering the results in the past 12 months with Ireland’s win over Australia, South Africa and England in the 6 nations, if Ireland were to go anywhere near winning the RWC, it would see Schmidt’s team post two consecutive wins over two of the top five ranked teams, a feat that Ireland have never achieved let alone achieved away from home.
Whatever happens, we’re going to find out a lot about Joe Schmidt and the Ireland team in the next two months. Will they have the talent, the depth and the composure to do something that no Ireland team has ever done before? We’ll soon see…
What do you think? Where will Ireland finish at the Rugby World Cup and are they genuine contenders?