PREVIEW – The Rugby Championship

Thankfully the little hiatus from rugby we’ve experienced over the past month or so has now ended and we move into the very exciting international season (even more exciting with 2015 being a World Cup year). With the All Blacks set to take on Argentina on Friday and the Springboks doing battle against Australia on Saturday, it’s time to preview the tournament and give an insight into what we may see in the coming 6 weeks.

New Zealand

We’ll start with last year’s Champions and the World Cup favourites (purely on form).

What can’t you say about this team. They unsurprisingly looked short of a trot against Samoa two weeks ago where they almost got rolled over by a very passionate Samoan team. However unfortunately for Argentina, they will be better for that run and you can expect a much more refined performance in Christchurch.

With TJ Perenara handed a start and Aaron Smith out of the squad all together and Waisake Naholo handed his much-deserved debut, you can’t help but think that if it wasn’t a World Cup year and they kicked off the Rugby Championship against the Springboks or the Wallabies then they’d endeavour to put their strongest team on the park. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case however, it is still a very good team.

In terms of what we can expect in the tournament compared with 2014, very few things will be different. This team has too many experienced heads and too smart of a coaching team to change their game plan too much but they’ll use a lot of tactical kicking as well as their second phase play off the breakdown.

Their most stiffest challenge will come in their next game against South Africa in Johannesburg and this is where the tournament will be won or lost. The prediction is that they will lose against the Springboks in Jo’burg however, they will finish a close second.

All Blacks’ player of the tournament – Israel Dagg: Expect Dagg to leave behind recent criticisms as he’ll reclaim his form and his Black 15 jersey just in time for the World Cup.

Tournament Prediction: A close second: Put Johannesburg with a seething South Africa and you get a virtually unwinnable match. New Zealand will come close but South Africa are a class outfit and they’ll be up for it.

Australia

Firmly up against it after a poor end of season tour to the Northern Hemisphere last year, Australia virtually have very little to lose. With a world of new combinations, the band has been put back together in Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Matt Giteau, a trio that haven’t played together since the ill-fated 2011 World Cup campaign, taking the 9,10 and 12 spots.

With Giteau at 12, expect the Wallabies to play a more expansive game as they’ve often struggled to find a decent enough distributor to put at inside centre. This will mean Adam Ashley Cooper, Rob Horne and Israel Folau will see more of the ball in a green and gold jersey than they have in a long time. Folau running off Cooper/Giteau could be something special and we’ll see this partnership develop greatly over the next two months.

It seems as if the planets may just be aligning for the Wallabies so don’t be surprised if they finally win back the Bledisloe Cup. They have always been a little off at set piece but the Brumbies and the Waratahs showed that their set piece can be dominant (barring the Super Rugby playoff series) so that might just transfer to the international team. And with a backline like that running off the maul that the Brumbies showed they could do so well, the result might be very special.

Wallabies player of the tournament – Israel Folau: You just can’t say anything bad about the kid. He runs like the wind, he’s powerful and he’s destructive – if he goes looking for the ball more and with a distributor in Giteau at 12, he could be the player of the tournament overall.

Tournament Prediction – Third: It will be a bit too soon for the Wallabies to start blitzing everyone they play. Giteau might look a little lost in the pace of test rugby but there will be some fantastic signs for the World Cup in a couple of months.

Springboks

The Springboks are a class outfit and while their Super Rugby teams didn’t do particular well in the Super 15, they’ll be ramping up their preparations for the World Cup in a big way. What better way to enter the World Cup than off a winning Rugby Championship campaign. That is IF they can get the ball past their 10.

That is quite a big if, especially without Jean de Villiers.

The Springboks have seemed content to play a game dominated by the forwards (why wouldn’t you with great forward packs like they keep producing) but it’s clear that the game has moved on and become faster. The funny thing is with the Springboks is that they seem far too content to keep the ball up front however, when the ball gets out past the 10, they have a dynamic back line and look very dangerous.

Victor Matfield’s presence will be galvanising for the Boks however it will be interesting to see how Handre Pollard directs the team without the veteran de Villiers outside him. It will also be interesting to see how Pollard combines with Damian de Allende who takes de Villiers spot at 12. If anything, direction at 10 is the one aspect that might hinder this Boks team. They are also missing a few key players in their back row like Duane Vermeulen so it will be interesting to see how Marcell Coetzee and Francois Louw cope with one of the best no.7s in the world in Michael Hooper.

Springboks player of the tournament – Eben Etzebeth: He is as good as he is towering. He’s dominant at line-out time, his work rate is superb and he sits just behind Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick as one of the best locks in the world.

Tournament Prediction – They’ll win it: It bodes well for the Boks that they’ll face the All Blacks in their own backyard however they’ll be deserved winners after going through the tournament undefeated.

Argentina

Argentina turned heads and raised eyebrows after claiming their first Rugby Championship win over Australia last year in Mendoza and while they’ll be confident that they can do the same this year in facing the Wallabies again in their own backyard, unfortunately for them they won’t even come close this time around.

There’s no doubt that they’re physical and combative in close. And there’s no doubt that they have some real talent in their team. However, they just can’t seem to stick to any type of game plan that will harm the other three teams in 2015. They’ve chosen an experienced squad to face the All Blacks but while their coaching team can get 40 good minutes out of them, they lose structure and lose the capacity to really challenge any team (obviously except for the 2014 Wallabies who were facing extreme internal turmoil).

Unfortunately, it’s going to be all bad news in this year’s Rugby Championship. With the All Blacks blowing out the cobwebs against Samoa, they’ll be trounced badly in Christchurch and they’re in line to face the same fate against Australia and the Springboks. In saying that, they’ll have their moments in which they will gel so it won’t be all bad moving forward to the World Cup.

Argentina player of the tournament – Marcelo Bosch: Bosch is world class and he’s showed at times that he’s more than just a big boot. He’s solid in defence and is an elusive runner – it just remains to be seen whether he will see more of the ball in this year’s campaign.

Tournament Prediction – 4th: There will be some bright times for the South Americans but they just can’t put in an 80 minute performance which will always hurt when playing the three other teams. The positives are that they’ll take confidence for when they play the All Blacks in London in a few months time.